Texas pecan growers are looking at an above-average crop and are hoping price improvement will follow.
Expectations are that Texas’ 2026 pecan season will produce modestly larger yields than last year, but that disease, extreme dry and hot weather in August could negatively impact nut kernel fill, said Monte Nesbitt, Ph.D., Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service pecan specialist and associate professor in the Texas A&M Department of Horticultural Sciences, Bryan-College Station.
Texas growers did not issue an official forecast at their July conference, but the Tri-State Pecan Growers Association estimate put Texas production near 42 million pounds, Nesbitt said.
Production forecast rises, prices firm Nesbitt estimated Texas’ overall yield at around 39 million pounds, up modestly from last year’s 32 million pounds.
Wholesale prices were better at times for the 2025 crop compared to 2023 and 2024, with some spring lots topping $2 a pound and approaching $3 a pound in the first quarter of 2026, Nesbitt said.
How the market opens for the 2026 crop depends on a number of moving parts. The volume of the early harvest realized by growers in Georgia, Louisiana and East Texas, as well as the quality of pecan kernels in those lots, will influence price points for the fall and early winter, he added.
Rising diesel, gasoline and fertilizer costs, combined with increased spraying requirements due to heavier disease and insect pressure are squeezing margins and raising the need for price support in the wholesale market.
More growers are turning to direct-to-consumer sales to capture better returns, a trend verified in a 2024 survey by the Texas Pecan Growers Association, he said.
Nesbitt expects retail pecan prices to rise slightly this year alongside broader food inflation.
Wet spring fuels disease, dry summer stresses kernels Every season can be a challenge for pecan growers, Nesbitt said. But it can also be great when conditions and management strategies align.
Trees bud in late March and aren’t harvested until October at the earliest, leaving a long season exposed to shifting weather, pests and disease across many Texas growing regions, he said.
An unusually wet spring in North, East and Central Texas left many orchards needing little irrigation into July, but the moisture also set conditions for pecan scab, a fungal disease that starts with small dark spots and can spread to blacken and drop shucks, Nesbitt said.
Growers also reported higher instances of downy spot and powdery mildew, both tied to the moisture, he said.
Dry conditions have since taken over across much of the state, with a hot, extremely dry spell arriving just as trees entered kernel fill, the critical August-to-September stage when the edible portion of the nut develops. It’s a time when tree water demand is highest.
“The dry weather we’re having now is impacting the development of kernel,” Nesbitt said. “Shriveled, malformed kernels can hide inside normal-looking shells.”
Texas pecan growers hope for good finish Growers with reliable irrigation have a good chance of finishing the crop while those without water face some uncertainty, he said.
“August is the separating point where pecans can go well, or they go badly,” Nesbitt said.
Producers also faced abovenormal insect pressure from pecan nut casebearer this season, he said. They can be the most devastating insect pest to a pecan orchard because their larvae burrow into nuts and feed on the kernel. Producers monitor their numbers closely and proactively control them.
Despite the challenges for individual orchards, Texas’ size and geographic diversity all but guarantee pockets of high-quality pecans somewhere in the state.
“Experience and overseeing our annual state pecan show makes me very confident that there are going to be good pecans in Texas in 2026,” Nesbitt said. “I don’t know where just yet, but somewhere in this state growers will put together the right combination of management decisions, overcome the weather challenges thrown at them, and their pecans will be really good.”
AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summary for the Central Texas district: Daily highs had topped 100 degrees nearly every day for the month, and some areas recorded no precipitation over that span. Light rain arrived late in the reporting period in parts of the district, ranging from trace amounts to half an inch with most locations that received moisture. Topsoil moisture was very short to adequate while subsoil conditions ranged from very short to surplus. Several small grass fires broke out. Corn harvest was wrapping up with average to above-average yields – 100-w180 bushels per acre – from fields that avoided hail and freeze damage earlier in the season. Harvest slowed in places as grain storage filled. Sorghum harvest concluded, with yields of 6,000-8,000 pounds per acre. Cotton harvest had begun on a limited basis and was expected to ramp up. Cotton defoliation was slowed by the hot, dry weather, and applications were prolonging the start of harvest, though a heavy fruit load had producers expecting about a bale and a half per acre. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to fair, and livestock conditions were poor to excellent. Pasture mealybug cut into hay volume enough that producers were concerned about shortages, and producers were actively spraying pastures to control the pest. Stock tank levels declined drastically over the past few weeks, and livestock were crowding shade trees and ponds that still held water. Ranchers were preparing and planting winter forage for stocker operations. Many started feeding hay and supplements, and some who had planned to market calves early were holding them to see where prices settle.